These principles guide every project:
Earn trust through transparency
A model must work correctly.
But that is not enough. It must also be verifiably corrrect.
This is the non-negotiable principle of my modelling process; to be worthy of the trust of senior decision-makers, making major financial commitments, under time pressure.
This overarching principles drives the others.
From the outset I work to understand which metrics matter to your organisation.
I can adapt to your needs, or guide you from my experience.
Your decision-critical metrics may include some combination of gross income, net income, unrestricted reserves, supporter volume, product-level ROI (return on investment), breakeven point, LTV (lifetime value) or NPV (net present value).
If your plan needs to show income broken down by restriction, earmark category or territory, we discuss it early on.
Similarly, we discuss any multi-currency requirements, income streams with different tax treatments, rolling period metrics, risk-weighting and cost of capital.
I work to ensure aligned definitions between fundraising and finance leadership.
The model will show the relevant output metrics, defined in a way that works for your organisation, without complication or unnecessary clutter.
I do not make assumptions about the information that you have. My process adapts to whatever you have available.
Some organisations have mature a data culture and business intelligence tools, and therefore have detailed model inputs such as CPA (cost per acquisition) figures, and month-by-month attrition profiles.
They might also have in-depth insight and modelling on some specific aspects of their programme such as legacy marketing.
Other organisations have sparse information, or reporting that they do not fully trust.
Typically, organisations have a mix; detail for some aspects of their fundraising programme, and gaps elsewhere.
Models can be as simple or as detailed as the available input data.
However I only add modelling sophistication where it materially improves your decision confidence.
I work to understand the decisions that the model will inform, and the metrics that you will consider.
These drive the choice of charts and tables, aiming for decision clarity without clutter.
Where possible I stick to simple bar and line charts to reduce cognitive load.
Formats adhere to best charting practices in The Economist and Financial Times.
I use your colour palette and typeface so you can drop charts into your board presentations without fuss.
I build models in Excel because it is functional, and accessible to fundraisers and finance teams.
All formulae are verifiable, and nothing is a 'black box'.
As far as possible I use pure Excel formulae, aiming to avoid macros, VBA, Python code and SQL integration.
Occasionally some automation code is unavoidable (see Monte Carlo method). In this case I use code for narrowest possible purposes.
I prioritise auditability by fundraisers and finance teams over technical tricks.
If your organisation has a specific requirement to avoid Excel, for example using Google Sheets or LibreOffice, I can also support that.